Is Climate Change Changing Our Coffee?

We tend to think of coffee as something wonderfully dependable. Put a cup beneath the machine, press the button and, within seconds, you have a familiar drink.

But behind that simple process, the coffee industry is facing an increasingly complicated future.

Coffee plants need particular combinations of temperature, rainfall and soil conditions, and climate change is altering all three. A major study published in 2026, supported by UNIDO and examining ten important coffee-producing countries, found that every one is facing growing exposure to climate stress.

Brazil provides a good illustration of the problem. The country is the world’s largest coffee producer and its harvest has been closely watched during 2026. Concerns over excessive heat, irregular rainfall and the potential effects of El Niño have raised questions about how much coffee will ultimately be produced.

And it is not simply a question of whether there will be enough coffee. The changing climate could also affect the types of coffee that farmers can successfully grow.

For years, Robusta has sometimes been presented as a possible answer because it generally tolerates higher temperatures than Arabica. New research reported in August 2026 has challenged that assumption. While Robusta is more heat-tolerant, researchers point out that it is vulnerable to drought, meaning that simply switching production from Arabica to Robusta is not necessarily a straightforward solution.

The implications are potentially significant. Coffee production supports millions of farming families around the world, so changes in growing conditions affect not only what eventually appears in our cups but also the livelihoods of the people producing it.

There is another important development taking place in Europe. The EU’s Deforestation Regulation is scheduled to start applying to larger and medium-sized operators from 30 December 2026. Coffee is one of the commodities covered, and businesses will need to demonstrate that relevant products are deforestation-free and legally produced.

That means traceability is becoming increasingly important. The modern coffee supply chain is no longer simply about buying beans and transporting them around the world. There is growing pressure to understand where those beans originated, how they were produced and what environmental impact their production had.

For consumers, these changes may eventually become visible in everything from the coffee available to the price paid for it.